TikTok is about to be banned
I listened to the entire Supreme Court argument today, and TikTok is in real trouble.
It gives me no pleasure to say so, as I make a significant portion of my annual income via TikTok, but as of this morning, TikTok is toast. I’m a lawyer, I listened to the entire Supreme Court oral arguments this morning, and the justices absolutely HATED TikTok. They’re clearly (well, probably) siding with the government, and upholding Congress’ “ban.” Now what does that mean going forward?
First, the Supreme Court hasn’t yet issued its opinion. Anything can happen. We’re just guessing at this point. But sometime in the next few days, or months — it can take that long — the court will issue a final decision. If the court doesn’t decide before January 19, the day the ban goes into force, the justices might stay the legislation, i.e., issue an injunction ordering that enforcement of the law be put on hold pending the court’s issuance of its decision. That would give TikTok some breathing space, depending how long the court takes to issue its decision.
Here’s what I think is going to happen.
The court may issue a decision in the next few days. If it doesn’t, it may stay the legislation, giving TikTok a little breathing room. But I now wonder whether they’ll issue a decision before that. There wasn’t a lot of room for doubt as to how they’re thinking.
On January 19, TikTok is banned in the US. But, that doesn’t mean it immediately disappears. Only that that the Google and Apple app stores can no longer carry it. So if you already have TikTok on your phone or ipad, it will work for a while, then it won’t. If you get a new phone or pad, you’re toast.
On January 20 at noon, Trump gets sworn in as president. He’s already said he’s on TikTok’s side (though Trump did try to ban TikTok multiple times when he was president). Trump could, under the legislation, issue a 90-day pause in implementing the ban. That would give him time to work on a solution, including pressuring Congress, which is now GOP-controlled, but only barely, to repeal the ban. Trump would probably get TikTok to offer something to entice Congress, a fig leaf that lets Republicans claim that the national security problem has been fixed.
That’s just my guess. It’s also possible that more than a few Republicans in Congress balk at Trump’s demand that they repeal the ban. Republicans can’t stand the Chinese government. And even Trump, with his magical ability to get Republicans to believe the earth is flat and the moon is made of cheese, might have a difficult time getting the GOP to overcome its visceral hatred of the Chinese communist party. (Though, Trump single-handedly turned Russia, which *is* our enemy, into our “friend,” so who knows to what depths Republicans will be willing to go in their desire to suck up to Trump.)
Okay, I’m off to my TikTok show to talk about the TikTok ban! As long as I can. Hope everyone has a nice weekend.
https://www.tiktok.com/@aravosis
JOHN
We can only pray that somehow TikTok is actually banned. The GOP is so slavish to dear leader it feels unlikely.
The TikTok Ban: A Psychological Power Play
Donald Trump’s handling of the TikTok ban is a textbook example of psychological manipulation targeting Gen Z. Here’s how the strategy worked:
1. Manufactured Crisis
By framing TikTok as a national security threat, Trump exploited the illusory truth effect—repeating a claim until it felt true. Targeting TikTok, a Gen Z cultural hub, triggered reactance psychology, where restrictions fuel rebellion, making his eventual reversal more impactful.
2. Perception of Power
Trump’s decision to lift the ban created the illusion he was more powerful than Congress. This leveraged the halo effect, positioning him as an independent disruptor, resonating with Gen Z’s distrust of traditional institutions.
3. Oversimplified Narratives
The ban boiled down to “Trump vs. Congress,” exploiting Gen Z’s reliance on quick, surface-level content. This relied on heuristics—mental shortcuts that simplified the issue, obscuring the deeper manipulation at play.
Takeaway for Gen Z
Trump’s TikTok manoeuvre reveals how easily emotional triggers and oversimplified narratives can be used to manipulate even the most skeptical generation. The solution? Stay critical, dig deeper, and question who benefits from the spectacle.
GQ