Russian nuclear threats

Russia has threatened nuclear war perhaps 6 or 7 times in the past week. Are the threats serious, and why is Russia making them?

In the past week, Russian government officials have threatened nuclear war a good seven or so times. Former Russian president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev made around three different nuclear threats on his own, and the other four came from Putin, defense minister Shoigu, foreign minister Lavrov, and a deputy foreign minister.

Then, for good measure, Putin announced/claimed he was moving tactical (small) nuclear weapons to the neighboring country of Belarus, run by a pro-Putin dictator.

The question is why all this is happening, and whether the threat is even real.

Spoiler alert, to put your mind at ease: I think Putin is bluffing. He’s never going to use nukes in Ukraine, nor is he likely to even move tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus. All the defense experts agree that Putin gains no military advantage by using such weapons. It won’t help the Russians on the battlefield, as Ukraine troops aren’t all bunched up in one place. Use of a nuke would likely only further steel Ukrainian resolve. It would probably force China and India to break with Russia. It would irradiate land that Russia considers Russian, and that Russia hopes to occupy. And finally, use of even small nuclear weapons in Ukraine would likely force NATO to enter the war. And NATO’s conventional forces could/would wipe Russia from the map.

So why are the Russians making the threat? The same reason they’ve been threatening nuclear war on a nearly weekly basis since the invasion began: We’re in day 397 of Putin’s 10-day war, and he needs something to change the dynamic. His only hope is getting NATO to think the risk of escalation is too high, and thus we pressure Ukraine to settle. At the very least, Putin is trying to provide propaganda fodder for the extreme left and MAGA right. He wants to give Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Fox News and Elon Musk something they can publicly fret over, in the hopes that it eventually convinces the American people, and thus their elected representatives, that this war is too risky to continue.

In the end, if Putin were truly going to use nuclear weapons, he wouldn’t be threatening to use them multiple times a week for the past 397 days, and then do nothing. He’s losing this war — or, at the very least, sees no credible way of winning it — and is now trying to psych us out of continuing our support. The strategy will certainly work with Trump, Tucker Carlson, and the extremist left. Let’s just hope that everyone else is able to see through the bluff, and continues supporting Ukraine to victory.

JOHN

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A few additional tidbits

Fox News host goes after Trump over the January 6 Insurrection:

Aaron Rupar @atrupar

Brian Kilmeade really went in on Trump for embracing January 6 during his Waco rally: He "opened up with a January 6 video, which is insane. He should be running from that, period. I don't care his point of view ... I thought that was absolutely awful."

The Nazis kidnapped children too:

Yes, AR-15s are more dangerous than handguns:

Mark Joseph Stern @mjs_DC

Read this article graphically explaining how AR-15s are far more dangerous than handguns. Then recall Brett Kavanaugh's claim: "It is difficult to make the case that semi-automatic rifles are significantly more dangerous than semi-automatic handguns."

washingtonpost.comThe Blast Effect: How bullets from an AR-15 blow the body apartThe Washington Post examined autopsy and postmortem reports from nearly a hundred victims of past mass shootings that involved an AR-15 style rifle.

In response to Trump yet again defending Putin, GOP presidential candidate Mike Pompeo writes in supporting of supporting Ukraine:

Washington Examiner @dcexaminer

Pompeo underscores need to counter 'Chinese-Russian effort in Ukraine'

trib.alPompeo underscores need to counter ‘Chinese-Russian effort in Ukraine’Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tied the efforts to undercut Russia’s bloody invasion of Ukraine with the struggle to counter Chinese aggression.

Elon Musk’s Twitter has already loft half its value:

Mitchell Orenstein @m_orenstein

Oops, Elon Musk lost $24 Billion. Extreme views? Troll behavior? Bad manager? The $24 billion question! Elon Musk Values Twitter at $20 Billion

nytimes.comElon Musk Values Twitter at $20 BillionThe billionaire bought the social media company for $44 billion in October and took it private.

And finally, Ukrainian troops trolling Russian troops with an unarmed drone:

John Aravosis 🇺🇸🇬🇷🏳️‍🌈 @aravosis

Ukrainians trolling Russians. This is pretty hilarious.