Putin's mass mobilization lies, and a brewing revolution in Iran

Anti-government protests grow in Russia and Iran.

A lot of news coming out of Russia this morning, after President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization (aka draft) yesterday to buttress the floundering Russian war effort in Ukraine. Putin claimed he was only drafting 300,000 men, and that he would only draft military reservists, i.e., men who had already served in the military. That was a lie.

Reports are coming in this morning that men who never served in the military have received draft notices already — including one man age 50 — and police have been registering anti-draft protesters (over 1,200 were arrested yesterday) for the draft, forcing military service on them as a punishment for protesting the state.

Dylan Primakoff @DylanPrimakoff

In at least 3 Moscow police stations today, detained protestors were served summonses to appear at enlistment offices.

Медиазона @mediazzzona

Задержанным как минимум в трех московских ОВД вручили повестки в военкомат Фото: Кирилл Гончаров https://t.co/X8huh6rLBo https://t.co/rb5tVyYstB

Alec Luhn @ASLuhn

A quiet dinner in Moscow

Oh, but it gets worse. A secret codicil to Putin’s order reportedly sets the real number of draftees at one million, not 300,000 as Putin publicly claimed. That means even more social unrest as Russians around the country find out that they and their loved ones are heading to Ukraine to fight a losing battle with a better-equipped, and far more motivated, enemy.

Interestingly, Putin had avoided any kind of draft until now because he feared social unrest. And that’s exactly what this mini-draft got him. One suspects that yesterday’s protests will only make it more difficult for Putin to institute a true nationwide draft if the war in Ukraine continues to falter.

Meanwhile, Russians are fleeing the country, after news of the draft went public. One-way flights from Russia to neighboring countries that don’t require a visa were reportedly either sold out yesterday, or the price of the tickets skyrocketed to three and five -times normal. In addition, Google’s Russian search engine noticed a surge in searches for “how to leave Russia,” and “how to break your own arm.” Not kidding on that last one.

Diana Magnay @DiMagnaySky

Brave Muscovites 🇷🇺 💙

Meanwhile in Iran, we’re in the sixth day of growing nationwide protests following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who mysteriously died in the custody of that country’s “morality police” (yes, that’s a real thing) after being arrested for wearing inappropriate attire, i.e., not wearing a hijab — a scarf of sorts — in public. The protest videos from Iran are harrowing and uplifting. I was especially pleased to see so many men openly-supporting women. I have been surprised, however, at how little coverage the protests are getting in the west.

مزالازین @Mesalazine_

Protesters are beating Islamic Republic's police guards in Iran, Amol city. This protest started after #Mahsa_Amini 's murder by Islamic Republic's hijab police. #مهسا_امینی

This video is particularly wild. Note the man slapping the woman in the face, during one of the anti-hijab protests. Then watch what happens to him next.

Meri @wangmeri_leo

This man slaps a woman's face during the Iranian people's protests against the hijab, and this is the reaction of the people on the scene: حقیقتا حال کردم پشت هم باشیم #مهساامینی #مهسا_امینی #Mahsa_Amini #mahsaamini #iran

And here are protesters intervening when the riot police try to arrest other protesters:

Shayan Sardarizadeh @Shayan86

In Kerman city centre, protesters directly confront riot police and plainclothes officers, preventing them from beating and arresting fellow protesters, on the fifth day of unrest in Iran sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody.

Other things I’m keeping an eye on, via social media

Support for NATO is at an all-time high:

Stars and Stripes @starsandstripes

In a recent survey, 81% of Americans said the U.S. should maintain or increase its commitment to NATO. That is the highest level of support recorded since the Chicago Council began such polling in 1974.

stripes.comAmericans put Europe at top of global security concerns, support NATO commitmentRussia’s war in Ukraine has sharpened American focus on security issues in Europe, and that was reflected in survey findings released Sept. 15 by the Chicago Council think tank.

Christian Amanpour tells the Irani government to stuff it:

Kourosh Ziabari @KZiabari

.@CNN's senior correspondent @amanpour has declined a previously arranged interview with #Iran's Ebrahim #Raisi because the president staff demanded at the last minute that Amanpour should wear a headscarf in New York. Amanpour has interviewed every Iran pres since 1995. #UNGA

Anthony Bourdain on Putin, a few years back:

Wu-Tang Is For The Children @WUTangKids

Anthony Bourdain on Putin…💯🎯!

More protesters in St. Petersburg, Russia:

Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 @michaeldweiss

"Putin in the trenches." St. Pete's, VVP's hometown.

And here’s an excellent analysis of Putin’s speech.

Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture

The speech from Putin today is a careful balancing act of a leader under pressure, who is trying to: 1. please hardliners and Russian milbloggers; 2. not displease the general populace; 3. appease the military; 4. give the impression he is not losing a war. 1/20 🧵

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Thanks as always folks, JOHN