CyberDisobedience - by John Aravosis

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Never underestimate the possible

cyberdisobedience.substack.com

Never underestimate the possible

Whether in Ukraine, or at home, don't assume you've lost, simply because the odds aren't in your favor.

John Aravosis
Apr 25, 2022
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Ukraine had me fooled. I didn’t think they’d last a week. I was convinced Russia would take over in days, and we’d soon be financing yet another guerrilla war against Russia, in a clear sign that the Cold War was back.

Yeah, not so much.

In politics, while I may share a lot of pessimistic news (it’s an incredible motivator), I tend to be an optimist in terms of what’s possible. I’ve been fortunate enough to be involved in advocacy campaigns over the years that influenced big companies like Microsoft, and big politicos like Barack Obama and Dick Cheney. I know that little people can accomplish big things in politics, and that often success springs from the jaws of defeat (or vice versa). Meaning, the winds can change quickly in politics — and who’s ahead and who’s behind can flip on a dime, and you have to be ready for it.

I’m reminded of 1994, when Republicans swept control of both houses of Congress. All year, we’d been told the Democrats would win. It wasn’t even in doubt. Then, maybe a few months before the November election, the polls started softening. But surely, Dems figured, control over the OTHER house of Congress was not in dispute. Then a few weeks before the election, it was. Dems lost both houses on election day Had you been a Republican listening to the conventional wisdom, you wouldn’t have wasted your time or money trying to win back the congressional majority in 1994. And you’d have been wrong.

Which takes us back to the present. Ukraine was supposed to lose this war. There was no point in sending weapons in advance, because it wouldn’t have mattered. And then, the brave Ukrainians won a battle, and then another. And the Russians were forced out of northern Ukraine, and many are now predicting that Russia can no longer win this war at all.

This is why, in politics at least, you shouldn’t believe the naysayers. Yes, at the moment, all may look doom and gloom, but that doesn’t mean you’ve lost. Even I fell for the naysayers on Ukraine. I’m not trying to suggest that the impossible is always possible. I am saying, however, that things aren’t always as impossible as they seem. Polls can change. Circumstances can change. And sometimes the experts simply get it wrong.

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A few more things:

Zelensky seems very happy now with US support for the war:

Twitter avatar for @oleksiireznikov
Oleksii Reznikov @oleksiireznikov
On behalf of the 🇺🇦 military,I would like to thank 🇺🇲 People and the Government: @POTUS @SecBlinken @SecDef for military assistance. It is not measured in money, but in the saved lives of Ukrainians. Your support brings closer the victory of freedom and democracy over 🇷🇺 tyranny!
Image
10:37 AM ∙ Apr 25, 2022
8,702Likes1,239Retweets

Another “mysterious” train derailment in Russia:

Twitter avatar for @Copernicus2013
Igor Schatz @Copernicus2013
Another video of derailed train carrying Russian armor, allegedly just outside of Bryansk
5:01 PM ∙ Apr 25, 2022
112Likes28Retweets

Sad!

Twitter avatar for @yarotrof
Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof
Russia’s Bryansk, a logistics hub for the Russian war on Ukraine, looks like a Ukrainian city this morning, with its huge fuel depots on fire amid unconfirmed speculation about a Ukrainian strike. Image source t.me/bryansk_offici…
Image
4:46 AM ∙ Apr 25, 2022
5,687Likes1,140Retweets

This made me chuckle:

Twitter avatar for @Copernicus2013
Igor Schatz @Copernicus2013
Putin lost another general today..
Image
6:30 PM ∙ Apr 24, 2022
3,556Likes590Retweets

Russia has already lost, says urban warfare expert John Spencer:

Twitter avatar for @AnaCabrera
Ana Cabrera @AnaCabrera
“Russia has already lost. …From every measure – from the strategic down to the tactical. Russia has shown the world that they’re not this big superpower, that they can’t do basic military tasks.” --@SpencerGuard, Major, US Army (ret).
5:32 PM ∙ Apr 25, 2022
99Likes19Retweets

Putin’s Russia:

Twitter avatar for @olex_scherba
olexander scherba🇺🇦 @olex_scherba
“So, you don’t deny you were preaching peace?…” #happyEaster2022 #StopRussiaNow #StandWithUkraine️ #RussianUkrainianWar
Image
1:11 PM ∙ Apr 25, 2022
677Likes179Retweets
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1 Comment
Michael Giltz
Apr 25, 2022

Now let's see the brutal ads making clear the GOP is the Party of Putin with quotes from Trump and Tucker and every Republican who praised Putin again and again and again. Because the Dems shouldn't assume they'll lose the midterms even though every expert says they will.

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